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resilients:scenario_symphony [2013-02-13 22:42] – alkanresilients:scenario_symphony [2013-03-11 13:49] (current) – nik
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 To test the scenario building kit, we decided to try it out in practice. FoAM Brussels is located in [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molenbeek-Saint-Jean|Molenbeek]], one of the “troublesome” communes of the Brussels-Capital Region. Our challenge was to look at what role food could play to improve contact and engagement between different cultural groups in Molenbeek. To test the scenario building kit, we decided to try it out in practice. FoAM Brussels is located in [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molenbeek-Saint-Jean|Molenbeek]], one of the “troublesome” communes of the Brussels-Capital Region. Our challenge was to look at what role food could play to improve contact and engagement between different cultural groups in Molenbeek.
  
->> FIGURE 1 – Example of a 'Drivers of Change' card+ 
 +<html><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/8481410812/" title="figure1 by _foam, on Flickr"><img src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8532/8481410812_b683a53d9d_b.jpg" width="800" height="319" alt="figure1"></a></html> 
 + 
 +FIGURE 1 – Example of a 'Drivers of Change' card (image credit)
  
 === Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit === === Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit ===
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   * **STEP 2: Set the boundaries:** A time frame (e.g. 2015), location (e.g. Molenbeek), and theme ("Food").   * **STEP 2: Set the boundaries:** A time frame (e.g. 2015), location (e.g. Molenbeek), and theme ("Food").
  
->> FIGURE 2 – Foodprints Ruler+<html><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/8480320291/" title="figure2 by _foam, on Flickr"><img src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8252/8480320291_d800bc8cdb_b.jpg" width="800" height="380" alt="figure2"></a></html> 
 + 
 +FIGURE 2 – Foodprints Ruler (image credit)
  
   * **STEP 3: Map the territory.** Create a list of physical, social, economic and historical characteristics of the place you're interested in, for example your family home, company HQ, neighbourhood, continent or the whole planet. Focus especially on characteristics that can influence change -- either by supporting or by hindering it. //As our topic was food, the Foodprints ruler (figure 2) was used to look at our challenge from a systemic point of view. You can develop a similar ruler for any given topic to meet your own individual discussion needs.//   * **STEP 3: Map the territory.** Create a list of physical, social, economic and historical characteristics of the place you're interested in, for example your family home, company HQ, neighbourhood, continent or the whole planet. Focus especially on characteristics that can influence change -- either by supporting or by hindering it. //As our topic was food, the Foodprints ruler (figure 2) was used to look at our challenge from a systemic point of view. You can develop a similar ruler for any given topic to meet your own individual discussion needs.//
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   * **STEP 7: Construct the scenario matrix.** On a large sheet of paper draw a vertical line crossing over a horizontal line -- an enlarged “+” sign, labelling the end of each line with one of the polar opposites of your two CUs. In this matrix, each of the four quadrants represents a skeleton of one scenario (see figure 3). //For example: [scenario 1] food abundance in a community-oriented lifestyle; [scenario 2] food scarcity in community oriented lifestyle; [scenario 3] food abundance in individualistic lifestyle; [scenario 4] food scarcity in an individualistic life-style.//   * **STEP 7: Construct the scenario matrix.** On a large sheet of paper draw a vertical line crossing over a horizontal line -- an enlarged “+” sign, labelling the end of each line with one of the polar opposites of your two CUs. In this matrix, each of the four quadrants represents a skeleton of one scenario (see figure 3). //For example: [scenario 1] food abundance in a community-oriented lifestyle; [scenario 2] food scarcity in community oriented lifestyle; [scenario 3] food abundance in individualistic lifestyle; [scenario 4] food scarcity in an individualistic life-style.//
  
->>FIGURE 3: Scenario matrix+ 
 +<html><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/8480320703/" title="figure3 by _foam, on Flickr"><img src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8371/8480320703_6d0bc7752d_b.jpg" width="800" height="342" alt="figure3"></a></html> 
 + 
 +FIGURE 3: Scenario matrix
  
   * **STEP 8: Create scenario narratives.** Draft a storyline/narrative for each scenario. Refer back to your challenge, boundaries, territory and drivers. You can use something like the Foodprints ruler again to add details to your scenario. Make sure you address the the consequences of each critical uncertainty.   * **STEP 8: Create scenario narratives.** Draft a storyline/narrative for each scenario. Refer back to your challenge, boundaries, territory and drivers. You can use something like the Foodprints ruler again to add details to your scenario. Make sure you address the the consequences of each critical uncertainty.
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   * **STEP 10: Locate your scenarios in the [[from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy cycle]].** Map the “past, present, near future and distant future” of each of your scenarios to the four phases of the panarchy cycle. To do this ask yourself which phase your scenario is positioned in. For example, the “birth” phase could be the past, the “growth and maturation” phase the present, “death” the near future, and “renewal” the distant future (see figure 5); or perhaps your scenario is situated in the creative chaos of the renewal stage -- on the verge of a complete transformation.    * **STEP 10: Locate your scenarios in the [[from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy cycle]].** Map the “past, present, near future and distant future” of each of your scenarios to the four phases of the panarchy cycle. To do this ask yourself which phase your scenario is positioned in. For example, the “birth” phase could be the past, the “growth and maturation” phase the present, “death” the near future, and “renewal” the distant future (see figure 5); or perhaps your scenario is situated in the creative chaos of the renewal stage -- on the verge of a complete transformation. 
  
->>FIGURE 5 – Example of mapping temporality onto a panarchy model+ 
 +<html><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/8480321093/" title="figure5 by _foam, on Flickr"><img src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8505/8480321093_4d0379e220_b.jpg" width="800" height="354" alt="figure5"></a></html> 
 + 
 +FIGURE 5 – Examples of mapping temporality onto a panarchy model
  
   * **STEP 11: Create an active and a passive future.** Design a passive future for your scenario where “business as usual” continues through all activities, regardless of what happens within and without the system in the long term. Next, design an active future where the scenario evolves towards an adaptive state of balance between its internal and external conditions -- thereby becoming more resilient.    * **STEP 11: Create an active and a passive future.** Design a passive future for your scenario where “business as usual” continues through all activities, regardless of what happens within and without the system in the long term. Next, design an active future where the scenario evolves towards an adaptive state of balance between its internal and external conditions -- thereby becoming more resilient. 
  
->>FIGURE 6 – Active and passive future +<html><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/8481412316/" title="figure6 by _foam, on Flickr"><img src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8511/8481412316_05028e5cf7_b.jpg" width="800" height="354" alt="figure6"></a></html> 
 + 
 +FIGURE 6 – Active and passive future 
  
   * **STEP 12: Visualise scenarios.** To illustrate your narratives, begin creating visuals for each. You could create one moodboard per scenario. Sometimes this is sufficient. In other situations you might want to create concept art illustrations or photomontages.   * **STEP 12: Visualise scenarios.** To illustrate your narratives, begin creating visuals for each. You could create one moodboard per scenario. Sometimes this is sufficient. In other situations you might want to create concept art illustrations or photomontages.
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 The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, depending on the needs of participants and the challenges involved. Each of the steps has a different purpose. The matrix delineates types of scenarios, while vantage points and time perspectives allow for different orientations. The approach we took at FoAM was unique in that we used the Foodprints ruler to focus on scenarios related to food, as well as to provide clear parameters and central themes for the discussions to follow. Metaphorically, steps 1--8 map the territory and explore the terrain, while 9--13 look at how the terrain changes over time. The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, depending on the needs of participants and the challenges involved. Each of the steps has a different purpose. The matrix delineates types of scenarios, while vantage points and time perspectives allow for different orientations. The approach we took at FoAM was unique in that we used the Foodprints ruler to focus on scenarios related to food, as well as to provide clear parameters and central themes for the discussions to follow. Metaphorically, steps 1--8 map the territory and explore the terrain, while 9--13 look at how the terrain changes over time.
  
->> FIGURE 7 – Viewing a scenario from different perspectives +<html><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/8481412760/" title="figure7 by _foam, on Flickr"><img src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8235/8481412760_720e917bec_b.jpg" width="800" height="360" alt="figure7"></a></html> 
 + 
 +FIGURE 7 – Viewing a scenario from different perspectives 
  
 It is our belief that the most important reason for thinking about the future is to learn about and adapt our behaviours in the present. Panarchy and the temporal model can help us reflect on the effect of our mindsets on system-wide changes. Our past past was at one time our future and this past has now determined our present. The panarchy model reflects the unpredictability of the rate of change in systems, but outlines perspectives for understanding this change. In planning for the future with an awareness of our agency and ability to shape change, future scenario building provides us with much more than an arsenal for anticipating  potential problems. It shines a light on behaviours and actions which may avert these problems before they arise. It is our belief that the most important reason for thinking about the future is to learn about and adapt our behaviours in the present. Panarchy and the temporal model can help us reflect on the effect of our mindsets on system-wide changes. Our past past was at one time our future and this past has now determined our present. The panarchy model reflects the unpredictability of the rate of change in systems, but outlines perspectives for understanding this change. In planning for the future with an awareness of our agency and ability to shape change, future scenario building provides us with much more than an arsenal for anticipating  potential problems. It shines a light on behaviours and actions which may avert these problems before they arise.
  • resilients/scenario_symphony.1360795329.txt.gz
  • Last modified: 2013-02-13 22:42
  • by alkan