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futurist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-05-20 13:40] nikfuturist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-05-20 14:06] (current) alkan
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 At FoAM we use the Global Business Network (GBN) approach when a group has a complex but burning question. In these situations finding out what is most important and also most uncertain can illuminate the issue even without creating scenarios. Furthermore, it is simple enough that it can be completed in a one-day or even half-day workshop (with some online follow-up afterwards). At FoAM we use the Global Business Network (GBN) approach when a group has a complex but burning question. In these situations finding out what is most important and also most uncertain can illuminate the issue even without creating scenarios. Furthermore, it is simple enough that it can be completed in a one-day or even half-day workshop (with some online follow-up afterwards).
  
 +----
  
-===Step 1: Focal Issue ===+=== Process ===
  
-__Identify a //focal issue// / //key question//__+== Step 1: Focal Issue == 
 + 
 +__Identify a focal issue / key question__
  
 Think about what is vital to your situation and formulate your focal issue as a question. A good way to start might be to ask yourself, 'What keeps me awake at night?' Think about what is vital to your situation and formulate your focal issue as a question. A good way to start might be to ask yourself, 'What keeps me awake at night?'
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 It is essential to identify and explore the question with everyone involved and to agree that the question is fundamental for the future. Take your time to define a clear and memorable question and try to phrase it succinctly, as you will need to keep it in mind throughout the following steps. It is essential to identify and explore the question with everyone involved and to agree that the question is fundamental for the future. Take your time to define a clear and memorable question and try to phrase it succinctly, as you will need to keep it in mind throughout the following steps.
  
-===Step 2: Factors===+== Step 2: Factors ==
  
 __Map the local situation and identify important factors__ __Map the local situation and identify important factors__
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 If you prefer a more structured conversation, you can define the key factors using [[appreciative inquiry interviews]], the [[KPUU framework]], or other techniques described in the [[observing and mapping]] section. If you prefer a more structured conversation, you can define the key factors using [[appreciative inquiry interviews]], the [[KPUU framework]], or other techniques described in the [[observing and mapping]] section.
  
-===Step 3: Drivers ===+== Step 3: Drivers ==
  
 __Identify driving forces__ __Identify driving forces__
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 Make a list of all the driving forces you have discovered. Make a list of all the driving forces you have discovered.
  
-===Step 4: Ranking ===+== Step 4: Ranking ==
  
 __Rank driving forces by their importance and uncertainty__ __Rank driving forces by their importance and uncertainty__
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 //Note: When the local factors seem to be where the core issue of a group lies, we rank both the local factors and external driving forces based on importance and uncertainty. This means that our scenario axes could be a mix of internal and external forces.// //Note: When the local factors seem to be where the core issue of a group lies, we rank both the local factors and external driving forces based on importance and uncertainty. This means that our scenario axes could be a mix of internal and external forces.//
  
-===Step 5: Critical uncertainties  ===+== Step 5: Critical uncertainties ==
  
 __Select critical uncertainties and design scenario axes__ __Select critical uncertainties and design scenario axes__
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 Plot the axes on a large piece of paper. If you have just one critical uncertainty, you’ll create two scenarios along a spectrum of one line, with two you’ll create a matrix and with three a volume. For more than three we would suggest creating multiple matrixes of two axes each. Plot the axes on a large piece of paper. If you have just one critical uncertainty, you’ll create two scenarios along a spectrum of one line, with two you’ll create a matrix and with three a volume. For more than three we would suggest creating multiple matrixes of two axes each.
  
-===Step 6: Scenarios ===+== Step 6: Scenarios ==
  
 __Create scenario narratives__ __Create scenario narratives__
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 In a group, come up with an outline, a 'skeleton' of each narrative. This can be short and succinct, but should capture the 'essence' of the scenario. From these outlines you can then write out the scenarios as short stories. You can do this in smaller groups, or individuals can volunteer to flesh out the stories after the workshop and send them to others for edits and suggestions.  In a group, come up with an outline, a 'skeleton' of each narrative. This can be short and succinct, but should capture the 'essence' of the scenario. From these outlines you can then write out the scenarios as short stories. You can do this in smaller groups, or individuals can volunteer to flesh out the stories after the workshop and send them to others for edits and suggestions. 
  
-=== Step 7: Answers ===+== Step 7: Answers ==
  
 Take a step back to get a sense what each of the worlds look like. How would you answer your core question (step 1) from each of the scenarios? What would your decisions look like in different futures? Explore what would have to happen to get from where you are now to the situation in the scenario. What opportunities and threats do you see in each of the worlds?  Take a step back to get a sense what each of the worlds look like. How would you answer your core question (step 1) from each of the scenarios? What would your decisions look like in different futures? Explore what would have to happen to get from where you are now to the situation in the scenario. What opportunities and threats do you see in each of the worlds? 
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-=== Step 8: Signals and Indicators ===+== Step 8: Signals and Indicators ==
  
 __Identify weak signals and other indicators in the present__ __Identify weak signals and other indicators in the present__
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