Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

Link to this comparison view

Both sides previous revision Previous revision
Next revision		 Previous revision
Last revisionBoth sides next revision
futurist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-05-20 13:40] – nikfuturist_fieldguide:gbn_approach [2015-05-20 14:04] – alkan
Line 1: Line 1:
 ==== The Schwartz/Global Business Network Approach ==== ==== The Schwartz/Global Business Network Approach ====
  
-This approach outlines how to build a scenario based on the model presented by Peter Schwartz in //The Art of the Long View//. It is one of the most commonly used scenario methods. The process is quite simple and can be easily implemented by novice facilitators. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be more like caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. +This approach outlines how to build a scenario based on the model presented by Peter Schwartz in //The Art of the Long View//. It is one of the most commonly used scenario methods. The process is quite simple and can be easily implemented by novice facilitators. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. 
  
 The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties:  The challenge of the method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: 
Line 12: Line 12:
 ===Step 1: Focal Issue === ===Step 1: Focal Issue ===
  
-__Identify a //focal issue// / //key question//__+__Identify a focal issue / key question__
  
 Think about what is vital to your situation and formulate your focal issue as a question. A good way to start might be to ask yourself, 'What keeps me awake at night?' Think about what is vital to your situation and formulate your focal issue as a question. A good way to start might be to ask yourself, 'What keeps me awake at night?'
Line 52: Line 52:
 //Note: When the local factors seem to be where the core issue of a group lies, we rank both the local factors and external driving forces based on importance and uncertainty. This means that our scenario axes could be a mix of internal and external forces.// //Note: When the local factors seem to be where the core issue of a group lies, we rank both the local factors and external driving forces based on importance and uncertainty. This means that our scenario axes could be a mix of internal and external forces.//
  
-===Step 5: Critical uncertainties  ===+=== Step 5: Critical uncertainties ===
  
 __Select critical uncertainties and design scenario axes__ __Select critical uncertainties and design scenario axes__
Line 64: Line 64:
 Plot the axes on a large piece of paper. If you have just one critical uncertainty, you’ll create two scenarios along a spectrum of one line, with two you’ll create a matrix and with three a volume. For more than three we would suggest creating multiple matrixes of two axes each. Plot the axes on a large piece of paper. If you have just one critical uncertainty, you’ll create two scenarios along a spectrum of one line, with two you’ll create a matrix and with three a volume. For more than three we would suggest creating multiple matrixes of two axes each.
  
-===Step 6: Scenarios ===+=== Step 6: Scenarios ===
  
 __Create scenario narratives__ __Create scenario narratives__
  • futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach.txt
  • Last modified: 2015-05-20 14:06
  • by alkan