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===== Scenario Methods =====

This page is an evolving, non-exhaustive collection of different methods and techniques that can be used in scenario building, particularly focusing on the ones that might be useful for Future Fabulators. There are many academic papers and consultants' websites describing a myriad of approaches describing "how to build scenarios" and what different types of scenarios exist. Though possibly oversimplifying the issue, we could say that for Future Fabulators the most important difference between methods is whether the scenarios are designed to be exploratory (multiple alternative scenarios for different possible futures), or normative (designing a desired scenario, then figuring out what needs to be done in order to get there). When working with normative scenarios the most important task is 'backcasting' or 'retrocasting' as we prefer to call it (see chapter about retrocasting lower on this page). With exploratory scenarios a lot of the time is spent on creating the elements of the scenario based on the present conditions of the internal and external environment, as well as forces that can influence change in both. Most scenario methods revolve around approximately the same phases: (1) delineating the space/issue/question (2) identifying elements of the scenario (factors, drivers, trends, measures, actors, events...) 3) selecting a reasonable amount of elements 4) projecting (extrapolating, forecasting...) the elements into (different) future(s) and 5) using scenarios to (re)design decisions, strategies and actions in the present. 

There are many different variations of scenario building flow, and we won't attempt to collect them all. Our filter is looking at approaches that can help us move from forecasting to embodiment, from story to experience. As in Ffab we are primarily focused on creating (immersive) situations where possible futures / parallel histories or presents can be physically experienced (and then reflecting on how this experience can affect our present behaviours), it isn't extremely important for us to have the most accurate representation of past, present and possible futures. We're more curious to uncover conscious and unconscious assumptions that the participants might have about their lives and environments and seeing how these assumptions shape and distort their images of the future. The scenario process uses these assumptions as if they were clay to create storyworlds out of them. In the process the awareness of the assumptions grows through non-judgmental observation and several waves of analysis and synthesis. The most rewarding moment in scenario building (in our experience) is when participants begin to recognise different scenarios as extreme versions or caricatures of their present, as if they have acquired a mysterious search-light, that can be used to illuminate different parts of an otherwise murky, entangled situation. Our review of existing scenario building methods is done to help us amplify these moments of clarity that spark imagination and a pro-active engagement with the futures. We're also interested how to make the whole process more fluid, creative and mindful (of self, others and the environment).

==== Methods, comparisons ====

An overview a simple description of a scenario building process can be found in [[http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html|How to Build Scenarios]] by Lawrence Wilkinson. Interesting [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/08/ten_rules_for_creating_awful_s.html| Ten Rules for Creating Awful Scenarios]] by Jamais Cascio, can be used as a checklist of what NOT to do in scenario building.

<blockquote>The paper to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. [...] eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each." "Based on our review of the literature, we have discovered eight general categories (types) of scenario techniques with two to three variations for each type, resulting in more than two dozen techniques overall. There are, of course, variations of the variations."

  - Judgment (genius forecasting, visualization, role playing, Coates and Jarratt)
  - Baseline/expected (trend extrapolation, Manoa, systems scenarios, trend impact analysis)
  - Elaboration of fixed scenarios (incasting, SRI)
  - Event sequences (probability trees, sociovision, divergence mapping)
  - Backcasting (horizon mission methodology, Impact of Future Technologies, future mapping)
  - Dimensions of uncertainty (morphological analysis, field anomaly relaxation, GBN, MORPHOL, OS/SE)
  - Cross-impact analysis (SMIC PROF-EXPERT, IFS)
  - Modeling (trend impact analysis, sensitivity analysis, dynamic scenarios)

From [[http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/UKHigherEducation/Futures/Documents/current_state_of_scenario_development_FORESIGHT.pdf|The current state of scenario development]] by Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins, Foresight, Vol. 9(1) </blockquote>

<blockquote>Another attempt at scenario typology is the [[http://www.infra.kth.se/fms/pdf/ScenarioRapportVer1_1b.pdf|Towards a user's guide to scenarios]] by Lena Börjeson et al classifies scenarios into three categories and six types:
  - Predictive (Forecasts, What if)
  - Explorative (External, Strategic)
  - Normative (Preserving, Transforming).
They categorise scenario techniques (all of which contribute to different scenario methods) into three kinds:
  - Generating techniques: generation of ideas and collection of data (surveys, Delphi, workshops)
  - Integrating techniques: combining parts into wholes (time-series analysis, explanatory modelling, optimised modelling)
  - Consistency techniques: checking the consistency of scenarios (cross impact analysis, morphological field analysis)
</blockquote>


<blockquote>Curry, Andrew and Wendy Schultz (2009), [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-4/AE03.pdf|Roads Less Travelled]] in the Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 13(4) made a comparison between different scenario methods: "Using four different scenario building methods: the 2x2 matrix approach; causal layered analysis; the Manoa approach; and the scenario archetypes approach. (...) This exploratory comparison confirmed that different scenario generation methods yield not only different narratives and insights, but qualitatively different participant experiences. (...) There is little in the literature which attempts to evaluate the different types of futures insight which emerge when different scenarios methods are used, the way in which choice of method might influence the types of conversations which are enabled by different scenarios processes, or the benefits and risks in using one approach over another. (...) To some extent, any scenario method can be completed as a desk-top research exercise. But creating scenario processes that effectively create change means creating participatory processes: scenarios create new behaviour only insofar as they create new patterns of thinking across a significant population within an organisation. So how engaging is each method, and what kind of thinking, conversation, and energy does each method produce in participants?

Each of these scenario methods appears to have distinguishing strengths. The 2x2 matrix approach produces four scenarios consistently focused on alternative outcomes for an issue at a specific scale. CLA generates conversations that dig down into the worldviews, mental models and cultural structures that inform how we perceive both issues and possible future outcomes. Manoa creates a diverse array of details across all levels of a possible future. Scenario archetypes guarantee consideration of outcomes across a specified set of worldviews. Yet none by itself is really a 'perfect', all-purpose approach. These differences underline the need for people who commission futures work to understand clearly what they are trying to achieve through scenario building, and to remain open to the methods that are most likely to be effective in reaching the desired outcome. (...) The primary lesson we have learned from this exercise as active practitioners is the value of mash-ups: combining and layering different techniques to enrich outcomes." </blockquote>



Examples of (historical) scenario methods:

=== 2x2 Double Uncertainty ===

The scenario building exercise (step 1-6) in the [[prehearsal pocket guide]] is based on the 2x2 method by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. On [[http://scenariosforsustainability.org/recipes/schwartz.html|this page]] Schwartz summarises the scenario building steps.

<html><a href="http://lib.fo.am/_media/resilients/scenario-process-diagram.png?w=1000&tok=7eba6d"><img src="http://lib.fo.am/_media/resilients/scenario-process-diagram.png?w=1000&tok=7eba6d"></a></html>


=== Causal Layered Analysis ===

"Causal layered analysis is offered as a new futures research method. It utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor.  The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing." -Sohail Inayatullah in [[http://www.metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm|CLA: poststructuralism as method]] and the [[http://metafuture.org/cla%20papers/Inayatullah%20%20Causal%20layered%20analysis%20-%20theory,%20historical%20context,%20and%20case%20studies.%20Intro%20chapter%20from%20The%20CLA%20Reader..pdf|CLA Reader]]

<html><a href="http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/cla1.jpg"><img src="http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/cla1.jpg" width="600"></a></html>


CLA simplified:
  * define the issue (or question)
  * discuss each layer separately 
  * cluster into themes
  * after reaching the bottom layer, pick a different myth/narrative and create a scenario by moving up the other layers, up to the new events and behaviours in 'litany'

=== The Manoa Approach ===

The [[http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/prez/sandw/sld032.htm|Manoa approach]] "assumes that actual futures are generated by the turbulent intersection of multiple trends, and the interplay of their cascading impacts. Thus each Manoa scenario requires a base of at least three orthogonal drivers of change, preferably emerging issues or 'weak signals.' The design is best suited to creating scenarios 25+ years out, maximally different from the present: it aims to produce surprising scenarios that shake current working assumptions/ (...) Five steps: 
[1] choose 3-5 significant emerging issues of change ('weak signals'); \\
[2] brainstorm or mindmap the potential impact cascades of each, working one by one; \\
[3] consider the cross-impacts arising from the 3-5 drivers and their impacts working together; \\
[4] doublecheck the depth of detail using an ethnographic inventory; \\
[5] develop a summary metaphor or title \\

<html><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png"><img src="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730110302004.png" width="400"></a></html> <html><a href="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"><img src="http://www.mepss.nl/tools/w07-fig1.gif"></a></html>

==== Four Generic Futures ====

<blockquote> Our use of "alternative futures" (or "scenarios") is usually within the context of helping an organization or community plan for and move towards its preferred future. (...) I have chosen to explain our use of alternative futures as though I were telling an interested community or organization what the components of a futures visioning process are in our understanding and experience, and how to conduct the various parts of an overall futures visioning process.</blockquote>

James Dator in [[http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/14-2/A01.pdf|Alternative Futures at the Manoa School]]

Dator discusses in length the process of creating four generic futures (Continue, Collapse, Discipline and Transform) - as four types of stories in which all/most future scenarios can be classified.

=== Cone of Plausibility ===

The "Cone of Plausibility, according to [[http://www.dtic.mil%2Fcgi-bin%2FGetTRDoc%3FAD%3DADA231618&ei=rdUCU-3QBIeSkwWG5oCYBA&usg=AFQjCNFbeM4KuYTqsIZaZYoaNholFliILg&sig2=ipuUxnViugB2ksDibwNYHQ|Charles W. Taylor]], “serves as an enclosure that circumscribes the thought process of the players. The strength of their thought process to build these scenarios and to hold them together as they proceed outward in time is a counterforce to the pressures of wild cards to disrupt the cone. Scenarios within the cone are considered plausible if they ad|here to a logical progression of trends, events, and consequences from today to a predetermined time in the future”

<html><a href=https://gs1.wac.edgecastcdn.net/8019B6/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8wsufwhnz1qz8vtso1_1280.jpg"><img src="https://gs1.wac.edgecastcdn.net/8019B6/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8wsufwhnz1qz8vtso1_1280.jpg"></a></html>

=== Morphological Analysis / FAR ===

[[Morphological Analysis]] is a way to create one normative scenario, from which a number of critical uncertainties are selected and given a set of variables; by combining different variables several 'worlds' can be created, as stepping stones for a smaller set of branching scenario timelines. See also [[Field Anomaly Relaxation]].

<html><a href=http://www.swemorph.com/graphics/z_box2.png"><img src="http://www.swemorph.com/graphics/z_box2.png"></a></html>


=== Other methods ===

Joseph Coates wrote "Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point-they have become extremely popular. Many people see scenarios as forecasts of some future condition while others disavow that their scenarios are forecasts. Yet looking at scenarios that do not come labeled as forecasts or non-forecasts. It is difficult to tell them apart. The purpose of the scenario is at a meta level, since the scenario usually does not speak for itself in terms of its purpose." [[http://www.josephcoates.com/pdf_files/232_Scenario_Planning.pdf|More in Scenario Planning]]. Another early in depth overview of [[http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/fhz95g00/pdf;jsessionid=D034F49912B794C5CCE293059B4BA299.tobacco03|How Companies Use Scenarios]] was written by Mandel and Wilson.

<html><a href="http://horizon.unc.edu/courses/papers/Scenario_Figure2.gif"><img src="http://horizon.unc.edu/courses/papers/Scenario_Figure2.gif"></a></html>


Michel Godet writes in [[http://en.laprospective.fr/dyn/anglais/articles/art_of_scenarios.pdf|The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning]]: "we strive to give
simple tools that may be appropriated. However, these simple tools are inspired by intellectual rigor that enables one to ask the right questions. Of course, these tools do not come with a guarantee. The natural talent,common sense, and intuition of the futurist also count!"

<html><a href=http://loganadia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/fig208_01_0.jpg"><img src="http://loganadia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/fig208_01_0.jpg"></a></html>


Anna Maria Orru and David Relan wrote [[:/resilients/scenario_symphony|The Scenario Symphony]] for the Resilients project, containing a whole range of scenario creation methods and techniques, including the dynamic [[:/resilients/from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy]] and [[:/resilients/temporal model]].

<html><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/foam/8480321093/" title="figure5 by _foam, on Flickr"><img src="https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8505/8480321093_4d0379e220_c.jpg" width="800" height="354" alt="figure5"></a></html>

More methods are described in the Futures Research Methodologies [[http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CDIQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3310&ei=R9n9UqixEIrmkAXymIDoBA&usg=AFQjCNGaA2QdNlSF3_6roa_YCSR0ez29SA&sig2=GEyGJ_CH5qo-INVR4kz0XQ&bvm=bv.61190604,d.dGI|chapter 13]] by Jerome C. Glenn and The Futures Group International.

Finally, an interesting avenue to explore are remote scenario planning workshops using various online collaboration tools. Jamais Cascio describes [[http://www.openthefuture.com/2007/01/the_virtual_workshop_or_how_to.html|here]] how he conducted a virtual scenario workshop, Noah Raford describes another [[http://noahraford.com/?p=414|experiment]] in [[http://news.noahraford.com/?p=650|online scenario planning]].


===== Scenario Techniques ====


Below we explore different techniques/elements of scenario building based on the method developed by Peter Schwartz and ask questions that emerged from our practice and investigate methods that might be used to improve the process.

 

==== Preparation beforehand ====

//What can we/participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand?//

Commonly the people organising the workshop will "Work on identifying major drivers, trends and events should be initiated ahead of the first workshop: this is an opportunity to draw on relevant horizon scanning work and other analysis. Ideally this work will be synthesised into a format which can be accessed easily by workshop participants, either as preparatory material or at the workshop itself. Material researched at this stage should include a mix of thematic material, together with analyses of broader trends." [[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre]] (pdf)

other possibilities:
  * Interviews, questionnaires for participants beforehand
  * Collective horizon scanning (facilitators, participants)
  * Insight meditation
  * ...


//What are the ideal settings (e.g. room size per person) for a scenario workshop?//

  * a large, long smooth wall or white/blackboard (at least 4-5 metres long, longer is better)
  * enough space for all participants to sit comfortably in a circle or semicircle
  * additional space for 3-5 breakout groups (a large working table, chairs, a wall or another surface to hang stuff up
  * social space with comfortable seating (e.g. sofas, bean bags, cushions) & refreshments (if possible for the whole group, otherwise for at least 4-5 people)
  * empty space (at least 3x3m for spreading stuff out, or doing physical/spatial sessions)
  * big windows with natural light
  * facilitation table (with various materials)
  * 'library' or books, media, magazines, images... related to the topics discussed
  * easy access to outdoor spaces
  * ...

==== Key question ====

//How to craft good questions?//
  * [[http://www.scribd.com/doc/18675626/Art-of-Powerful-Questions|The art of powerful questions]]

//How to better structure/encourage designing the core question?//
  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Questions_%28game%29|questions game]]

Questions encourage an [[inquiring mind]]

Why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems?

"In nearly all cases it should be possible to formulate the purpose of the scenarios work as a question. If this proves difficult, this is often an indication that the work will not be taken up when completed, even if it is of a good quality." -[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]


==== Plotting the present situation ====

//What are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question?//
  * [[KPUU Framework]]

//When to use this step?//

When can it be reduced/removed? When is it more important to focus on this step (observe, then interact as permaculture teaches us) than to work on possible future scenarios? 

//What does a 'futurism without prediction' look like?//

A few ideas on [[non_predictive_strategy]]

//When does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist?//

  * in a workshop where the group had a pressing need to resolve a situation, talking about what is fixed quickly gave a picture of what was still possible to change and what was the space in which the group could move to find solutions to a blockage
  * on the other hand, in more open-ended workshops (say in the beginning of projects) talking about what's fixed created some discomfort (or perhaps it was just unclear what we meant by fixed)

==== Key factors ====

//What are different ways to visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors//

  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affinity_diagram|Affinity diagram]]
  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_diagram|Cluster diagram]]
  * [[http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm|Force Field Analysis by Kurt Lewin]], where the key question is placed in the middle, forces exerting pressure for the change on the left, and against the change on the right.
  * "interrogate anomalies:  data or incidents that seem anomalous - that somehow “don’t fit”, seem weird or don’t make sense, should receive immediate attention.  They could be pointers to a shift in the system as a whole" From: http://silberzahnjones.com/2012/10/04/crafting-non-linear-strategy-the-nature-of-the-problem/#more-799

// What do we mean by key factors?//

  * internal (local) drivers of change
  * success criteria (what will make my question succeed or fail)

==== Change Drivers & Weak Signals ====

  * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making?
  * how can we make assumptions and guesswork more apparent (i.e. indicating how drivers can be based on an assumption, guess or 'fact')?
  * what is the relevance of facts and data related to drivers of change in experiential futurism? 
  * can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends which results in something more meaningful than a list of assumptions (without too much expert analysis needed beforehand)?

//How do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? //
(nouns -> verbs)

  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_wheel|Futures Wheel]]
  * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_impact_analysis|Cross Impact Analysis]]
  * [[www.cgee.org.br%2Fatividades%2FredirKori%2F3302&ei=pPsGU_XvEMilkQXExYHICQ&usg=AFQjCNGIGowNnzsRvhMCmohNKF986pAUGA&sig2=eYuhWVzgsrzKAMYkb3SXaA&bvm=bv.61725948,d.dGI&cad=rja|Trend Impact Analysis]] (quantitative)
  * MA/FAR (see below)
 
// should we make our own STEEP (or related) cards to avoid the 'business bias'?// probably, if we have the time - and focus on long term trends only + add wild cards (random images/words/tarot/playing cards...). 
  * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? see [[horizon scanning]] and [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/summary-of-verge-ethnographic-futures-framework-devised-by-richard-lum-and-michele-bowman|Ethnographic Futures Framework]]

//Is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)?//

  * weak signals, emerging issues, historical analogues 
  * the Manoa approach says looks at emerging issues rather than drivers of change - ref. needed...

// How effective are these methods and how can we usefully evaluate them?//

It seems to be a big academic issue (see thesis by Mihaela Ghisa)

==== Ranking critical uncertainties ====

(this is relevant only for the 2x2 scenario method. other methods use more axes (but are equally vague about how to select them)

  * what are different ways in which this is done by others? most approaches i could find use numbers, or conversation.

  * [[http://www.swemorph.com/ma.html|Morphological Analysis]] could be a great way to work with a large number of clustered drivers, that can be combined in different ways to select a smaller set of important and/or quickly create basic scenario skeletons. The foodprints ruler from FoAM Nordica works on a similar principle.

==== Scenarios ====

//When to use one, two, three or more axes//

  * __Two axes method__: Scenarios generated using the ‘two axes’ process are illustrative rather than predictive; they tend to be high-level (although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added). They are particularly suited to testing medium to long-term policy direction, by ensuring that it is robust in a range of environments. Scenarios developed using this method tend to look out 10-20 years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
  * __Branch analysis method__: The ‘branch analysis’ method is suited to developing scenarios around specific turning-points that are known in advance (e.g. elections, a referendum or peace process). This approach works best for a shorter time horizon: generally up to five years.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
  * __Cone of plausibility__ method: offers a more deterministic model of the way in which drivers lead to outcomes, by explicitly listing assumptions and how these might change. Of the three techniques, this approach is most suitable for shorter-term time horizons (e.g. a few months to 2-3 years), but can be used to explore longer-term time horizons. It also suits contexts with a limited number of important drivers.[[http://www.eisf.eu/resources/download.asp?d=5764|The Horizon Scanning Centre (pdf)]]
  * CLA: probing deeper cultural foundations of core issues
  * Manoa approach: "the scenarios it produces are generally much longer-term, and far more divergent / transformative in their structure -- for sophisticated clients only, or to enhance creativity and innovation in R&D and product design staff. The resulting scenarios also work well as provocations in incasting exercises" From http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sb.shtml
  * Harman Fan: "thinking through the multiple causalities that produce an infinite array of alternative possible futures" http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbharman.ppt
  * etc (see in methods above)


//How to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised)?//

have a look at the CLA or the [[http://www.slideshare.net/wendyinfutures/summary-of-verge-ethnographic-futures-framework-devised-by-richard-lum-and-michele-bowman|Ethnographic Futures Framework]] (Bowman & Schultz, 2005), 


==== From scenarios to story-worlds ====

  * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories? 
    * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backstory|Backstory]]
    * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_fiction|Flash Fiction]]
    * "a day in the life of..." (a character in a scenario, or one character in different scenarios)
    * ...



==== Retrocasting ====

"The best kinds of stories are about how you get from here to there, not just what there looks like." --Jamais Cascio

Searching for present signals, asking the question "how to get from here to there". Aka Backcasting [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting|Backcasting]]:
Backcasting starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect the future to the present.

However with retrocasting/retrotesting or scenario testing (as we also call it sometimes) we don't look at exclusively at a desirable future, but at different possible futures resulting from scenario building, and attempt to identify signals in the present that might point to the future moving in this or that direction.


//What tools can we use to structure scenario testing?//

[[http://www.skymark.com/resources/tools/cause.asp|Cause & Effect Diagram]]: "The cause and effect diagram is used to explore all the potential or real causes (or inputs) that result in a single effect (or output). Causes are arranged according to their level of importance or detail, resulting in a depiction of relationships and hierarchy of events." In scenario testing this could be used not as 'cause and effect', but how to get there from here (note down a topic from the scenario, then work backwards to see what would have to happen to make it happen).

<html><a href="http://www.skymark.com/images/fishbone.gif"><img src="http://www.skymark.com/images/fishbone.gif"></a></html>


Another interesting possibility is to abstract principles from a scenario and retrocast from them. In [[http://www.naturalstep.org/backcasting|this article]] they suggest not to use scenarios at all, but to work from agreed upon sustainability principles.

<html><a href="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png"><img src="http://www.naturalstep.org/sites/all/files/Backcasting_AllBox.png" width="500"></a></html>

  * what are important things to focus on?

==== Visualising ====

//Which methods could we use to visualise scenarios?//
  * moodboards
  * collages
  * storyboard
  * newspaper with headlines
  * video mix
  * [[|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinterest|pinterest board]] (or similar collective online pinboard)

==== Prototyping ====

  * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures?

More on [[possible_futures_parallel_presents]] and [[experiential futures]]

==== Prehearsals ====

  * how to design them?
  * how to host them?
  * how to evaluate them?

continue research on [[prehearsal methods]]

==== Follow-up ====

  * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)?
  * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up?

It all depends on the purpose of the workshop...


==== Futures research methods ====

<html><a href=https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730080303002.png"><img src="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730080303002.png"></a></html>

<html><a href=https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730120202001.png"><img src="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/content_images/fig/2730120202001.png"></a></html>


From: [[https://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1558553&show=html|Identifying systems' new initial conditions as influence points for the future]]

{{:future_fabulators:screen_shot_2014-02-19_at_17.04.07.png?nolink}}

Mapping scenarios techniques. (Source: Andrew Curry)