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| future_fabulators:prehearsing_the_future [2022-01-07 14:51] – maja | future_fabulators:prehearsing_the_future [2022-01-07 14:59] (current) – maja |
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| At FoAM,((http://fo.am)) we have used diverse scenario-building techniques devised by Peter Schwartz,((Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley)) ARUP((http://www.driversofchange.com/)) and others to find the best ways to [[prehearsal pocket guide|sketch possible futures]] grounded in a solid understanding of the past and the present. We'd like to stress again that scenario planning does not attempt to predict the future, but helps us //“create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view.”//((http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_foresight)) In other words: scenarios enable us to look with our eyes wide open. | At FoAM,((http://fo.am)) we have used diverse scenario-building techniques devised by Peter Schwartz,((Peter Schwartz, 1998, //The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World,// Wiley)) ARUP((http://www.driversofchange.com/)) and others to find the best ways to [[prehearsal pocket guide|sketch possible futures]] grounded in a solid understanding of the past and the present. We'd like to stress again that scenario planning does not attempt to predict the future, but helps us //“create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view.”//((http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_foresight)) In other words: scenarios enable us to look with our eyes wide open. |
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| It goes without saying that futurism and strategic foresight don't have a monopoly on looking with eyes open. Meditation and theatre improvisation are two other examples of practices where we are invited to observe and interact. All of these practices engage different techniques to increase awareness of our past and present actions, as well as to be prepared for a range of possible futures by understanding the present. | It goes without saying that futures and strategic foresight don't have a monopoly on looking with eyes open. Meditation and theatre improvisation are two other examples of practices where we are invited to observe and interact. All of these practices engage different techniques to increase awareness of our past and present actions, as well as to be prepared for a range of possible futures by understanding the present. |
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| By cultivating awareness of our present condition we can become more open and resilient to whatever the future brings, knowing what we can or should change, what is worth keeping and what we're better off discarding. At the same time, we want to step into the future with a healthy dose of “visionary adaptation”((http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/global/beyond-resilience-visionary-adaptation-1374)) -- knowing where we'd like to go while being ready to adapt to unexpected and unknowable circumstances. Ready to welcome the future in the present moment, without knowing which future will come knocking. | By cultivating awareness of our present condition we can become more open and resilient to whatever the future brings, knowing what we can or should change, what is worth keeping and what we're better off discarding. At the same time, we want to step into the future with a healthy dose of “visionary adaptation”((http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/global/beyond-resilience-visionary-adaptation-1374)) -- knowing where we'd like to go while being ready to adapt to unexpected and unknowable circumstances. Ready to welcome the future in the present moment, without knowing which future will come knocking. |
| ===The end, but not really=== | ===The end, but not really=== |
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| When we began experimenting with scenarios and prehearsals at FoAM, we weren't sure what to expect. We had a sense that there was something interesting in there, but couldn't quite point to what it was. Instead of researching futurism's state of the art, we found a few things that worked in our context and began our practical experiments. From the first day onward there were constant surprises. Defining the “critical uncertainties” for our scenarios made our biggest challenges surface from a magma of drivers and mega-trends -- without us realising beforehand what they were. The first prehearsal showed how we could become totally different people, while still being ourselves. The second enhanced a sense of trust and belonging for some but alienated others. The third shone a spotlight on some of our present practices that were potentially unsustainable and might better be discarded. | When we began experimenting with scenarios and prehearsals at FoAM, we weren't sure what to expect. We had a sense that there was something interesting in there, but couldn't quite point to what it was. Instead of researching state of the art of futures studies, we found a few things that worked in our context and began our practical experiments. From the first day onward there were constant surprises. Defining the “critical uncertainties” for our scenarios made our biggest challenges surface from a magma of drivers and mega-trends -- without us realising beforehand what they were. The first prehearsal showed how we could become totally different people, while still being ourselves. The second enhanced a sense of trust and belonging for some but alienated others. The third shone a spotlight on some of our present practices that were potentially unsustainable and might better be discarded. |
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| We're not yet done with being surprised by the repercussions of scenarios and prehearsals in our daily lives. We feel confident that they can be effective in a confined setting: they work well for individuals and small groups, communities or organisations if everyone involved is fully committed to the process. We'd be curious to see how they work with larger networks, whole cities or even countries. There are precedents, including the nation-wide NNNI disaster drills in ex-Yugoslavia,((http://libarynth.org/nnni)) or the more recent Zombie Apocalypse of the US military.((http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2012/1031/No-prank-On-Halloween-US-military-forces-train-for-zombie-apocalypse)) Aside from enlarging their geographic and demographic spread, we'd also like to try prehearsals over different durations: from an hour to a month for example. Finally, we'd like to share the tools and stories, so that different groups of people could prehearse and share their findings. | We're not yet done with being surprised by the repercussions of scenarios and prehearsals in our daily lives. We feel confident that they can be effective in a confined setting: they work well for individuals and small groups, communities or organisations if everyone involved is fully committed to the process. We'd be curious to see how they work with larger networks, whole cities or even countries. There are precedents, including the nation-wide NNNI disaster drills in ex-Yugoslavia,((http://libarynth.org/nnni)) or the more recent Zombie Apocalypse of the US military.((http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2012/1031/No-prank-On-Halloween-US-military-forces-train-for-zombie-apocalypse)) Aside from enlarging their geographic and demographic spread, we'd also like to try prehearsals over different durations: from an hour to a month for example. Finally, we'd like to share the tools and stories, so that different groups of people could prehearse and share their findings. |
maja