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| future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-12 01:39] – maja | future_fabulators:confabulation [2015-05-20 10:10] (current) – nik | ||
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| ==== Confabulation ==== | ==== Confabulation ==== | ||
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| + | < | ||
| + | --Warren Ellis | ||
| + | </ | ||
| working notes of Future Fabulators | working notes of Future Fabulators | ||
| {{future_fabulators: | {{future_fabulators: | ||
| + | |||
| + | “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous” Dator’s 2nd Law of the Future (Dator 1995) | ||
| ==== external / rational ==== | ==== external / rational ==== | ||
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| * 'but why...' | * 'but why...' | ||
| * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing and developing ' | * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing and developing ' | ||
| + | * what are the historical and current examples of experimental arts and culture as speculative/ | ||
| + | * What is the relationship between storytelling and fortunetelling? | ||
| + | * What online tools exist to make statistical analysis (and other aspects of futures research) available for non-expert futurists? | ||
| * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | ||
| * what other forms can ' | * what other forms can ' | ||
| * what is the shortest and/or longest time in which we can complete meaningful scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results while keeping the process enjoyable for the participants? | * what is the shortest and/or longest time in which we can complete meaningful scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results while keeping the process enjoyable for the participants? | ||
| * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | ||
| - | * what can we borrow from other fields, such as; improv, role playing games, LARP, disaster drills, meditation… to improve prehearsals? | + | * what techniques |
| + | * what is the state of the art in enacting [[ possible futures parallel presents|possible futures / parallel presents]] (e.g. micronations, | ||
| * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? | * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? | ||
| * how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like Reactable for example) | * how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like Reactable for example) | ||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | Preparation beforehand | ||
| - | * what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand? | ||
| - | * what are the ideal settings (e.g. room size per person) for a scenario workshop? | ||
| - | |||
| - | Key question | ||
| - | * what are good questions to ask? | ||
| - | * [[http:// | ||
| - | * how to better structure/ | ||
| - | * [[https:// | ||
| - | * how can we encourage an ' | ||
| - | * why does it seem more difficult to phrase questions rather than stating problems? | ||
| - | |||
| - | "In nearly all cases it should be possible to formulate the purpose of the scenarios work as a question. If this proves difficult, this is often an indication that the work will not be taken up when completed, even if it is of a good quality." | ||
| - | |||
| - | Mapping the present situation | ||
| - | * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding the key question? | ||
| - | * [[KPUU Framework]] | ||
| - | * when is this step necessary? when can it be reduced/ | ||
| - | * does it help to talk about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist? | ||
| - | |||
| - | Key factors | ||
| - | * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors | ||
| - | * " | ||
| - | * are we talking only about success criteria here? | ||
| - | |||
| - | Macro trends | ||
| - | * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | ||
| - | * how can we make assumptions and guesswork more apparent (i.e. indicating how drivers can be based on an assumption, guess or ' | ||
| - | * what is the relevance of facts and data related to macro trends in experiential futurism? | ||
| - | * how can we have a more constructive discussion about the macro trends which results in something more meaningful than a list of assumptions? | ||
| - | * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? (nouns -> verbs) | ||
| - | * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | ||
| - | * [[horizon scanning]] | ||
| - | * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the ' | ||
| - | * are there other well understood methods to group trends other than the customary STEEP (in which cultural changes seem to be clumped in with social or political)? | ||
| - | * is there another way to look at large scale changes aside from trends (without having to do a PhD in each of the changes)? | ||
| - | * how effective are these methods and how can we usefully evalute them? | ||
| - | * what does a ' | ||
| - | |||
| - | Ranking critical uncertainties | ||
| - | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | ||
| - | |||
| - | Scenarios | ||
| - | * when to use one, two, three or more axes? | ||
| - | * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised? | ||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | From scenarios to story-worlds | ||
| - | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | ||
| - | * what elements do we need in a scenario database? | ||
| - | * how to create rich characters and meaningful plots? | ||
| - | |||
| - | Scenario testing (signals, how to get from here to there) | ||
| - | * how is this done by others? | ||
| - | * what are important things to focus on? | ||
| - | |||
| - | Visualising | ||
| - | * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | ||
| - | |||
| - | Prototyping | ||
| - | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | ||
| - | |||
| - | Prehearsals | ||
| - | * how to design them? | ||
| - | * how to host them? | ||
| - | * how to evaluate them? | ||
| - | |||
| - | Follow-up | ||
| - | * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | ||
| - | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | ||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| - | |||
| ==== scenario database ==== | ==== scenario database ==== | ||
| - | 20140205 While editing [[scenarios]] | + | 20140205 While editing [[scenarios]] it became apparent how tricky it is to keep a consistency in information and layout of the scenarios. The scenario database we're planning to make should make this easier. Components that seem to be needed in all scenarios: |
| * what is the question? | * what is the question? | ||
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| or should we keep the database only as a 'short story collection'? | or should we keep the database only as a 'short story collection'? | ||
| + | a rather bad example of a scenario database is the [[http:// | ||
| ==== software & protocols ==== | ==== software & protocols ==== | ||
| * open formats > closed formats | * open formats > closed formats | ||
| Line 157: | Line 93: | ||
| * online | * online | ||
| * **libarynth** for text, tangents and collation -> http:// | * **libarynth** for text, tangents and collation -> http:// | ||
| - | * **flickr** for image matter -> https://secure.flickr.com/ | + | * **flickr** for image matter -> http://www.flickr.com/ |
| * **vimeo** for video matter -> http:// | * **vimeo** for video matter -> http:// | ||
| * **zotero** for library and references -> https:// | * **zotero** for library and references -> https:// | ||
| Line 164: | Line 100: | ||
| * prediction book | * prediction book | ||
| * wikipedia | * wikipedia | ||
| + | |||
| + | === natality === | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | Hanna Arendt and ' | ||
| + | Voor Arendt is ' | ||
| + | http:// | ||
| + | |||
maja