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future_fabulators:confabulation [2014-02-10 07:22] – nik | future_fabulators:confabulation [2015-05-20 10:10] (current) – nik | ||
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==== Confabulation ==== | ==== Confabulation ==== | ||
+ | |||
+ | < | ||
+ | --Warren Ellis | ||
+ | </ | ||
working notes of Future Fabulators | working notes of Future Fabulators | ||
{{future_fabulators: | {{future_fabulators: | ||
+ | |||
+ | “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous” Dator’s 2nd Law of the Future (Dator 1995) | ||
==== external / rational ==== | ==== external / rational ==== | ||
* [[: | * [[: | ||
* can we use predictions to help separate/ | * can we use predictions to help separate/ | ||
- | * what is the question? can it be answered | + | * what is the question? can it be answered |
==== internal / irrational ==== | ==== internal / irrational ==== | ||
* divination / invocation | * divination / invocation | ||
- | ==== present / future | + | ==== physical narratives |
- | 20140206 Having done several | + | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; |
+ | * performing text on screen | ||
+ | * Varytale | ||
+ | * "Text becomes | ||
+ | * Very based around computer games. | ||
+ | * " | ||
+ | * Note: Prehearsals | ||
- | Here are a few possible research questions and directions (some quite broad, others very specific), collected from various debriefs | ||
- | **How to improve the [[: | + | ====formalised decision making==== |
- | General questions: | + | A lot of the scenario planning process has to do with [[Formalised Decision Making]] |
- | * 'but why' (experiential futurism)? | + | |
- | * how do we give the participants a sense of agency when discussing ' | + | |
- | * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting | + | |
- | * what forms can ' | + | |
- | * what is the shortest and longest time in which we can do scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results | + | |
- | * how can we help increase commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future? how much follow-up | + | |
- | * what can we borrow from other fields, like improv, role playing games, LARP, disaster drills, meditation… to improve prehearsals? | + | |
- | * how can we allow participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, but discourage being distracted by email, social media…? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like the Reactable for example) | + | |
- | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | + | |
- | Preparation beforehand | + | ==== present / future ==== |
- | * what can participants prepare for a scenario workshop beforehand? | + | |
- | * what is the ideal room size (per person) for a scenario workshop? | + | |
- | Key question | + | 20140206 Having done several [[scenarios|scenario workshops]], |
- | * how to better structure designing | + | |
- | * how can we encourage | + | |
- | * why is it so difficult to make questions instead of stating problems? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Mapping | + | |
- | * what are different ways to map-out the present situation surrounding | + | |
- | * when is this step necessary? | + | |
- | * does it help talking about things that are fixed, or constraints that exist? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Key factors | + | |
- | * how to best visualise and cluster the relationships between key factors | + | |
- | * are we talking only about success criteria here? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Macro trends | + | |
- | * how much analysis is appropriate for the types of scenarios and prehearsals we’re making? | + | |
- | * what is the relevance of facts and data related to macro trends in experiential futurism? | + | |
- | * how can we have a more constructive discussion | + | |
- | * how do we look at drivers as dynamic forces? should we be looking at responses to trends rather than trends in general? | + | |
- | * what are existing ways of discussing trends with groups of people? | + | |
- | * should we make our own STEEP cards to avoid the 'business' | + | |
- | * are there other ways to group trends except | + | |
- | * is there another | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | Ranking critical uncertainties | + | |
- | * what are different ways in which this is done by others? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | Scenarios | + | |
- | * when to use one, two, three or more axes? | + | |
- | * how to better structure building scenario skeletons with guiding questions (which questions could be generalised? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | + | ||
- | From scenarios to story-worlds | + | |
- | * what techniques can we use to flesh out the scenarios into interesting stories | + | |
- | * what elements | + | |
- | * how to create rich characters | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Scenario | + | |
- | * how is this done by others? | + | |
- | * what are important things to focus on? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Visualising | + | |
- | * which methods could we use to visualise possible futures? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Prototyping | + | |
- | * which methods could we use to prototype possible futures? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Prehearsals | + | |
- | * how to design them? | + | |
- | * how to host them? | + | |
- | * how to evaluate them? | + | |
- | + | ||
- | Follow-up | + | |
- | * How can we follow-up what happens to the groups after we finish the workshops (especially to understand what happens to commitments to actions and preferred possible futures)? | + | |
- | * How much do we need to be involved in the follow-up? | + | |
+ | Here are a few possible research questions and directions (some quite broad, others very specific), collected from various debriefs | ||
+ | **How to improve the [[prehearsal pocket guide]]?** (notes from February 2014) | ||
+ | General questions: | ||
+ | * 'but why...' | ||
+ | * how do we encourage a sense of agency amongst the participants when discussing and developing ' | ||
+ | * what are the historical and current examples of experimental arts and culture as speculative/ | ||
+ | * What is the relationship between storytelling and fortunetelling? | ||
+ | * What online tools exist to make statistical analysis (and other aspects of futures research) available for non-expert futurists? | ||
+ | * how do we clarify that what we’re doing is not about predicting the future, but about empowering people to be more aware of their present situation and clarify what they could do today to shape their actions to encourage a preferred possible future? | ||
+ | * what other forms can ' | ||
+ | * what is the shortest and/or longest time in which we can complete meaningful scenario workshops and/or prehearsals to come up with interesting results while keeping the process enjoyable for the participants? | ||
+ | * what other methods, aside from scenario building, are used to discuss possible futures? | ||
+ | * what techniques can we use to translate possible future scenarios into experimental situations (improv, role playing games, LARP, disaster drills, meditation)? | ||
+ | * what is the state of the art in enacting [[ possible futures parallel presents|possible futures / parallel presents]] (e.g. micronations, | ||
+ | * how can we help increase the commitment of the participants to work towards their preferred future(s)? how much follow-up is needed? | ||
+ | * how could we enable participants to use digital tools to enrich the process, while avoiding distractions and displacements of email, social media, etc? what collaborative digital tools could we use to share the same digital working surface (something like Reactable for example) | ||
==== scenario database ==== | ==== scenario database ==== | ||
- | 20140205 While editing [[scenarios]] | + | 20140205 While editing [[scenarios]] it became apparent how tricky it is to keep a consistency in information and layout of the scenarios. The scenario database we're planning to make should make this easier. Components that seem to be needed in all scenarios: |
* what is the question? | * what is the question? | ||
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or should we keep the database only as a 'short story collection'? | or should we keep the database only as a 'short story collection'? | ||
+ | a rather bad example of a scenario database is the [[http:// | ||
==== software & protocols ==== | ==== software & protocols ==== | ||
* open formats > closed formats | * open formats > closed formats | ||
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* online | * online | ||
* **libarynth** for text, tangents and collation -> http:// | * **libarynth** for text, tangents and collation -> http:// | ||
- | * **flickr** for image matter -> https://secure.flickr.com/ | + | * **flickr** for image matter -> http://www.flickr.com/ |
* **vimeo** for video matter -> http:// | * **vimeo** for video matter -> http:// | ||
* **zotero** for library and references -> https:// | * **zotero** for library and references -> https:// | ||
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* wikipedia | * wikipedia | ||
- | ==== reading/ | + | === natality |
- | * various [[:scifi]] threads re. possible future cultures, shifting relation between humans & their environment, | + | |
- | * bloom, ventus, mars trilogy, incrementalists, | + | |
- | * "A History of the Future in 100 Objects " >> [[https:// | + | Hanna Arendt |
- | * 'the culture' | + | Voor Arendt is ' |
- | * https://en.wikipedia.org/ | + | http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/arendt/#AreTheAct |
- | * [[: | + | |
- | * https://en.wikipedia.org/ | + | |
- | * https:// | + | |
- | * The Hermetic Library reading room >> http:// | + | |
- | * Erwin Wagenhofer' | + | |
- | * Christine Wilks talking about text as a way for developing character depth; [[http://www.riders-project.net/research/videos/christine-wilks-taking-text-out-of-the-box.html]] (This probably belongs elsewhere, but...) | + | |
- | * performing text on screen | + | |
- | * Varytale | + | |
- | * "Text becomes the equivalent of subtitles" | + | |
- | * Very based around computer games. | + | |
- | * " | + | |
- | * Note: Prehearsals are first person narratives, PNs are third person. Thus a Prehearsal can have " | + | |